WEXFORD, Pa. -- In his bid for re-election, President Bush has visited the Keystone State more often than any other battleground. But in the solidly Republican suburbs of Pittsburgh, all is not well.
The Republican base is fragmented after a bruising Senate primary, with many conservatives voicing unhappiness over U.S. involvement in Iraq, the rising deficit and pricey legislation to give senior citizens prescription drug benefits.
With an aging population that tends to be culturally conservative, pro-gun and anti-abortion, Pennsylvania, particularly west of metropolitan Philadelphia and east of Pittsburgh, would seem fertile ground for Bush.
But outside Soergel Orchards, 76-year-old Jim Frew loads his plants into his Saturn station wagon and fumes about the war.
"We shouldn't be in Iraq. We shouldn't be there at all," said Frew, a fiscally conservative Republican who served in the Navy at the end of World War II.
Frew praised the service of Democratic candidate Sen. John Kerry and said he was angry that Bush put on a flight suit to fly onto an aircraft carrier last year, despite his time in the National Guard.
"He's not a veteran as far as I'm concerned, and he doesn't know what he's doing," he said.
When Frew speaks of the soldiers in Iraq, his face flushes and he chokes up.
"They've got such a tough job, it busts me up," said Frew, who insisted he will pull the lever for Kerry in November.
In Pennsylvania, with its 21 electoral votes, the pivotal question is: Where will frustrated Republicans like Frew go on Election Day?
Advisers to Kerry's campaign are hoping that simmering disaffection among folks like Frew holds down GOP turnout in a state where there are 400,000 more registered Democratic voters than Republicans.
"There is a big difference between having 95 percent of Republicans voting for you and 90 percent of Republicans voting for you," said one top Kerry adviser. "That 5 percent can make the difference between winning and losing."
Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, scoffed at the possibility, saying Bush's approval rating among Republicans is higher than President Ronald Reagan's in 1984, higher than Bush's in 2000 and higher than the Democratic support for President Bill Clinton in 1996.
"I know it's what they're hoping, but it's just not true," Dowd said. "Our strength and support is higher than his strength and support."
Among Republicans, Bush has the support of about 89 percent, according to a Gallup Poll, while polls show Kerry with 80 percent support among Democrats.
Still, some Republicans say Bush's 28 trips to Pennsylvania since he became president may not be enough to quell concerns about his actions in office, particularly with a net loss of 159,400 manufacturing jobs during his tenure.
"I don't believe the president will carry Pennsylvania," said William Green, a GOP political consultant in Pittsburgh.
Gore won in 2000
In 2000, Al Gore won the state by 5 percentage points despite the assistance Bush received from Republican Tom Ridge, who was then the governor and has since become homeland security secretary. This year, Green said, there is a Democratic governor and Kerry has been living in the state on weekends with his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, the ketchup heir with deep ties to the region and a charitable foundation known for its local largess.
Pennsylvanians have a long history of electing moderate Republicans to statewide office, including former Gov. Richard Thornburgh and Sen. John Heinz, Heinz Kerry's late husband. The phenomenon is due in part to crossover voting by conservative Democrats combined with strong moderate Republican support in the Main Line suburbs of Philadelphia.
This year, Green said, conservative Republicans are feeling troubled, and some may stay home on Election Day.
"The deficit is what's bothering a lot of folks," he said. "We're just spending money like Bill Clinton. And the Medicare bill--that just broke a lot of people's hearts."
Even so, Green said he plans to vote for Bush.
So does Woody McVicker, a local committeeman from Ross Township in the affluent North Hills area outside Pittsburgh. But, he said, "it's going to be halfheartedly."
McVicker said he believes that people who don't support the war in Iraq are unpatriotic, and he believes Bush's tax cuts have spurred the economy. What he's upset about is Bush's support for incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter, a moderate Republican, over conservative Rep. Pat Toomey in the April Senate primary.
"I'm not too happy with what he did to help Arlen Specter beat Pat Toomey," McVicker said.
In the rolling green hills of these northern conservative suburbs, Toomey trounced Specter. That there is now some sense of dissatisfaction among Republican voters is palpable.
Scoffing at Kerry
But Mike DeVanney, former executive director of the Republican Committee of Allegheny County, said he can't see many Republicans turning to Kerry.
"People don't see John Kerry as a Pittsburgher as many times as he rides a bike around North Park or goes to church at St. Scholastica," he said. "They may not be a big fan of the Medicare bill, but they see the bigger picture."
One Republican activist, who asked that his name not be used for fear of hurting his business, said he is distraught by the war in Iraq and believes he has not been given truthful explanations from the president. He said he plans to vote for Kerry in protest.
"It's not that I like John Kerry. I don't," said the activist. "It's that we can do better than this."
Lou Nudi, a Toomey supporter from North Hills, said it will take some hand-holding to get conservative activists working on Bush's behalf.
"I think we get some people in here and talk to them, and we will get them back and energized again," he said.
Few voters ever agree with a candidate on every issue. And political activists often grouse after primaries don't go their way. But for Bush, about 89 percent of all Republicans are like Nedra Tucceri, a part-time bookkeeper who plans to vote for the president in November.
"I really do believe that he did what he had to do for our future protection and safety," Tucceri said as she looked back to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. "He did an excellent job."
Chicago Tribune
The Republican base is fragmented after a bruising Senate primary, with many conservatives voicing unhappiness over U.S. involvement in Iraq, the rising deficit and pricey legislation to give senior citizens prescription drug benefits.
With an aging population that tends to be culturally conservative, pro-gun and anti-abortion, Pennsylvania, particularly west of metropolitan Philadelphia and east of Pittsburgh, would seem fertile ground for Bush.
But outside Soergel Orchards, 76-year-old Jim Frew loads his plants into his Saturn station wagon and fumes about the war.
"We shouldn't be in Iraq. We shouldn't be there at all," said Frew, a fiscally conservative Republican who served in the Navy at the end of World War II.
Frew praised the service of Democratic candidate Sen. John Kerry and said he was angry that Bush put on a flight suit to fly onto an aircraft carrier last year, despite his time in the National Guard.
"He's not a veteran as far as I'm concerned, and he doesn't know what he's doing," he said.
When Frew speaks of the soldiers in Iraq, his face flushes and he chokes up.
"They've got such a tough job, it busts me up," said Frew, who insisted he will pull the lever for Kerry in November.
In Pennsylvania, with its 21 electoral votes, the pivotal question is: Where will frustrated Republicans like Frew go on Election Day?
Advisers to Kerry's campaign are hoping that simmering disaffection among folks like Frew holds down GOP turnout in a state where there are 400,000 more registered Democratic voters than Republicans.
"There is a big difference between having 95 percent of Republicans voting for you and 90 percent of Republicans voting for you," said one top Kerry adviser. "That 5 percent can make the difference between winning and losing."
Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, scoffed at the possibility, saying Bush's approval rating among Republicans is higher than President Ronald Reagan's in 1984, higher than Bush's in 2000 and higher than the Democratic support for President Bill Clinton in 1996.
"I know it's what they're hoping, but it's just not true," Dowd said. "Our strength and support is higher than his strength and support."
Among Republicans, Bush has the support of about 89 percent, according to a Gallup Poll, while polls show Kerry with 80 percent support among Democrats.
Still, some Republicans say Bush's 28 trips to Pennsylvania since he became president may not be enough to quell concerns about his actions in office, particularly with a net loss of 159,400 manufacturing jobs during his tenure.
"I don't believe the president will carry Pennsylvania," said William Green, a GOP political consultant in Pittsburgh.
Gore won in 2000
In 2000, Al Gore won the state by 5 percentage points despite the assistance Bush received from Republican Tom Ridge, who was then the governor and has since become homeland security secretary. This year, Green said, there is a Democratic governor and Kerry has been living in the state on weekends with his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, the ketchup heir with deep ties to the region and a charitable foundation known for its local largess.
Pennsylvanians have a long history of electing moderate Republicans to statewide office, including former Gov. Richard Thornburgh and Sen. John Heinz, Heinz Kerry's late husband. The phenomenon is due in part to crossover voting by conservative Democrats combined with strong moderate Republican support in the Main Line suburbs of Philadelphia.
This year, Green said, conservative Republicans are feeling troubled, and some may stay home on Election Day.
"The deficit is what's bothering a lot of folks," he said. "We're just spending money like Bill Clinton. And the Medicare bill--that just broke a lot of people's hearts."
Even so, Green said he plans to vote for Bush.
So does Woody McVicker, a local committeeman from Ross Township in the affluent North Hills area outside Pittsburgh. But, he said, "it's going to be halfheartedly."
McVicker said he believes that people who don't support the war in Iraq are unpatriotic, and he believes Bush's tax cuts have spurred the economy. What he's upset about is Bush's support for incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter, a moderate Republican, over conservative Rep. Pat Toomey in the April Senate primary.
"I'm not too happy with what he did to help Arlen Specter beat Pat Toomey," McVicker said.
In the rolling green hills of these northern conservative suburbs, Toomey trounced Specter. That there is now some sense of dissatisfaction among Republican voters is palpable.
Scoffing at Kerry
But Mike DeVanney, former executive director of the Republican Committee of Allegheny County, said he can't see many Republicans turning to Kerry.
"People don't see John Kerry as a Pittsburgher as many times as he rides a bike around North Park or goes to church at St. Scholastica," he said. "They may not be a big fan of the Medicare bill, but they see the bigger picture."
One Republican activist, who asked that his name not be used for fear of hurting his business, said he is distraught by the war in Iraq and believes he has not been given truthful explanations from the president. He said he plans to vote for Kerry in protest.
"It's not that I like John Kerry. I don't," said the activist. "It's that we can do better than this."
Lou Nudi, a Toomey supporter from North Hills, said it will take some hand-holding to get conservative activists working on Bush's behalf.
"I think we get some people in here and talk to them, and we will get them back and energized again," he said.
Few voters ever agree with a candidate on every issue. And political activists often grouse after primaries don't go their way. But for Bush, about 89 percent of all Republicans are like Nedra Tucceri, a part-time bookkeeper who plans to vote for the president in November.
"I really do believe that he did what he had to do for our future protection and safety," Tucceri said as she looked back to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. "He did an excellent job."
Chicago Tribune
